Thursday, May 29, 2008

Time to think about summer storms

Just read this from Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog posted at 12:58 PM EDT on May 29, 2008:

Makes me think of "Wrong Way Lenny"...

Tropical Storm Alma, in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Nicaragua, is steadily intensifying, and appears likely to develop into a hurricane later today. The latest QUikSCAT pass from 8:03am EDT showed winds of 50 knots (58 mph) near the center, and a recent microwave image showed the formation of an eye. Alma is generating very heavy rains in excess of six inches per day near its center.

Looking at the satellite photo, you can see that Anguilla (we are currently anchored in Road Bay) seems to be at the very edge of the bands, which probably explains why it has been overcast all day. Not our typical blue sky and puffy white clouds...

Since Alma now dominates the circulation pattern of the region, none of the computer models are predicting that a tropical depression will form in the Western Caribbean in the coming week. It is possible that Alma could cross Central America and pop out in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. However, the crossing of Central America will severely disrupt the storm, and the odds of Alma becoming a depression in the Atlantic basin are very low... Satellite loops show that Alma has developed a large circulation that extends into the Western Caribbean, and rains from Alma will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba through Saturday. These areas can expect heavy downpours with rainfall totals of 3-6 inches through Saturday.

We have friends (Hanalei Bay) bringing us some mail from the USVI in about 10-12 days, but soon as possible afterwards we plan to sail south. It will be nice to go someplace new.